The CI probability increased to 56% at 1815Z in north-central Charlton County. In the proceeding images at 1830, 1845 and 1900Z, the visible satellite imagery shows significant convective development in that area. I am a little surprised that the CI only went up to 56% and that the green CI prob area that showed up on my display was relatively small compared to how much convective growth actually occurred.

(Click image to see animation)

-Helen Hunt