ProbSevere was increasing after 2300z, and reached above 80% at the 2324z radar scan. However, the lightning data doesn’t show anything particularly notable as far as an increase in rate.

Hail potential is evident on radar, although ProbSevere MESH is only at about 1″. Given the marginal nature of the MESH and the lack of increase in lightning, this is a situation in which I would hedge toward not warning because of the addition of the experimental products. If I just had NEXRAD, I would have leaned toward warning, despite the distance from radar.

Jason Williams