The ENI thunderstorm alerts drew my attention to a storm in the western part of the Bismarck CWA. I first got the ENI DTA Thunderstorm alert, then about 15 minutes later it had increased to the Significant Thunderstorm Alert and about 6 minutes after that, the Dangerous Thunderstorm alert. I also had the prob severe overlaid with the alerts and noticed that it was gradually increasing. This increased my confidence that the storm was strengthening and that a severe thunderstorm warning was needed. I issued the severe just after I got the dangerous thunderstorm alert. At that time, the severe prob was at 74%, but knowing the strengthening trend, I felt that I could get more lead time if I went ahead and issued the warning even though severe prob hadn’t yet reached the 80% threshold. The storm has not verified yet.

(Please click on the image below to see the animation)

-Helen Hunt