The CI probability product keyed in on some convective development along an outflow boundary from a storm moving southeastward across Morton County. It went from 43% at 2145Z over northern Grant County to 68% at 2200Z. Comparing the product to radar reflectivity, there were dBZ values over 50 just east of Heart Butte Dam at 2151Z and the cell continued to intensify for the next few scans.

I think that this data would be more useful during warning operations if it was available every 5 minutes versus every 15.

(Click image to see animation)

(Click image to see animation)

-Helen Hunt