The image below (please click to animate) shows an example of when the CI probability product successfully predicted the onset of convection. At 1845Z, a yellow CI polygon appeared southwest of Solen indicating a 60% probability of convective initiation. In the next frame (1900Z), the visible satellite imagery shows intense cumulus growth in the vicinity. I also compared this to radar, and a cell popped up at 1858Z.

-Helen Hunt