BIS CWA: Using NUCAPS and CIMSS to anticipate new convective development

Trying to anticipate future convective development. Looked at a CIMSS CAPE (fig 1) plot and seeing that the best CAPE is shifting into the eastern CWA. Took the available NUCAPS sounding and modified  it with a nearby metar with a 77/66 surface reading.  See plenty of CAPE (3,500 J/kg). May be too much just simply modifying the surface points along, but nonetheless it shows it is plenty unstable.  This was also in a mostly clear region.  Plan on testing CI-East to see if this clues in on potential development in this area. –Cattywampus.

CIMSS_CAPE

Fig 1: CAPE shifting east along with surface low and southerly flow.

nucaps

fig 2. Modified NUCAPS sounding over cloud free SE portion of the CWA. Still quite unstable.

–Cattywampus

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