A cu field developed in portions of the Pendleton, OR CWA shortly after 17z. The CAPE derived from GOES is underperforming compared to the RAP CAPE (up to 1800 J/kg). There is a zone where RAP CAPE is 600-1200 J/kg where the GOES estimate is zero. Just to not out-model ourselves, the GOES-derived CAPE does not match up with the cu field’s location.

A positive is that the GOES-R CI has pegged area of possible convection (in a few spots >50%) that lines up very well with where the cu field has developed. The outline of individual cloud elements that is discernible to the eye is also being picked up by the CI algorithm.

Jason Williams and MacGyver

Participants were reminded that the GOES-R CAPE values are CAPE in the layer between the LFC and EL, so to compare absolute values with (MUCAPE here), is not very 1-1. Additionally, these products use a GFS first guess, so if the GFS is way off for whatever reason, the retrievals will likely be off as well, even if they do provide some degree of bias correction – BL