First meaningful cell developed in the area that showed the most promising CAPE values shown on the CIMSS satellite CAPE analysis.  The cell did develop but was of the pulse variety. ProbSevere only showed about a 35% SVR Prob (fig 1) which seemed reasonable with only a narrow 50dBz core only reaching a little above 27kft MSL.  The core quickly collapsed and only showed a ProbSevere of ~11% (Fig 2).

Fig 1: 2010z, ProbSevere ~35%.

With our modified NUCAPS souding showing ~2300 J/kg, expecting to see some stronger development but it didn’t happen. The morning 12z sounding did show a pretty substatinal stable layer/cap so could be it hasn’t completely mixed out yet or our modified sounding using the KISN site may have been too aggressive. Additonal cells continue to form, will see if they can develop deep if the cap is continuing to erode.

Fig 2: 2021Z, ProbSevere, ~11%.

Forecasters: Cattywampus/CoonieCatEye