Lubbock CWA not experiencing severe convection at beginning of shift, but departing cells observed to the north and northeast.  Based on mesoanalysis, will also watch MAF and ABQ CWAs for emerging storms that could be mature in the LUB area.

CI gave a useful signature for developing storms in Pecos Co TX, and Roosevelt Co NM.

For example.  Roosevelt Co storm first acquired a probability of severe (albeit small 7%) at 1906Z.  CI first passed 50% at 1815Z.  By time of writing (1940Z) it had trended down.

At 1950 two areas have CI >60%, Dickens Co and Briscoe Co.

AMA 12Z sounding was not judged to be representative.  Based on modified MAF sounding 3800 SBCAPE can be achieved, also represented by RAP mesoanalysis.

-Holaday