ProbSvr with Warnings

Here is an interesting example of ProbSvr ramping up while looking at 4 storms.

2214Z. ProbSvr is picking up four cells. This is the first scan where the two right cells have pulsed. Earlier, this could be a situation where we weren’t sure which storms would pulse back up. Seeing this helped the LUB office issue the severe you see here.

svr12214

2216 shows both right cells increasing some more.

svr2216

2220 shows them combining so it’s hard to say which storm is stronger now.

svr2220

2224 and we issued the southern severe.

At 2232 Z reported quarter size hail.

svr2224

 

The ProbSvr showing the difference in the cells helped us see which ones needed the focus of attention. It caught the high probs on the southern storm before the warning went out with a higher lead time for the hail. Again, it is to note that when the two storms combined, that may be why it spiked up because the northern storm was stronger at an earlier point.

 

Lauren13/Polarimetric Researcher

 

 

 

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