With the severe thunderstorms that moved through the EWX CWA, we used ProbSvr and TimeSeries to help us decide if we were going to issue a new warning or expire/cancel a warning. Here are the examples from the two that we had going.

Here at 2308..the warning on the right was expiring at 2315z and the one on the left expires at 2330z. We needed to make a decision soon on the one on the right. It wasn’t too impressive in terms of reflectivity but we noted that the ProbSvr remained high and hadn’t faltered through the life of the storm. As well, the DTA (not shown) was continuing through the life of the storm as well.

At 2312..they are looking similar. At this point we decided to reissue a severe on the storm on the right. The ProbSvr holding strong every two minutes definitely helped us make this decision. Also to note the time series (shown at the bottom) is also steady on the one on the right.

At 2314z…we have issued a new severe on the one on the right and now the storm on the left is weakening per the ProbSvr. We were already considering letting the warning on that one expire so this helped our decision.

At 2322z…the storm on the right is still holding a strong ProbSvr Probability while the one on the left continues to diminish. We were still deciding if we wanted to issue a new one for the left for possibly a wind threat but at this point we decided to expire it.

And as you can see at 2335…the left storm has dissipated.

Here are the time series for both storms. The one on the left is the strom from the left above and you can see the quick drop off. The one on the right held steady and continued to help our decision to issue a new warning.

Also to note…this is a GIF from 13z-22z of the LAP CAPE data. We have been watching this each hour and the storms have been following the instability axis along the Texas border. We saw this earlier and were prepared for the storms to take that track.

Lauren13/Ertel