I am noticing a trend that ENI Lightning Jumps are acting as a precursor in today’s environment to increased Prob Severe probabilities. The trend is developing after a few observations with early initiations in the far west part of our CWA border.  The first image is an example of an ENI jump, please focus on upper right panel (data point 2).

Prob Severe has been a very helpful tool through the week. As we analyze more discrete cells developing and moving east into the SJN CWA. In this cases, our data display from ENI has been much cleaner and seems to help guide the forecaster.  The correlation to lightning jumps and storm intensification will continue to be monitored in today’s environment. The image below demonstrates the increasing prob severe probability just minutes after our ENI lightning jump (bottom left panel, <70%)..

UFFSU