After a brief look at guidance for convection chances in LWX today, it isn’t looking too great. There are some surface features with the latest analysis showing a trough stretching from central NJ down to central VA. A cold front is stretching through the entire country from north of Vermont to southern Mississippi. 17z GOES-R products shows the CAPE to the south in AKQ’s CWA as well as the highest LI/K index and PW values. Looking at the latest satellite imagery shows skies clearing after 16z over the CWA and cumulus fields developing. It looks like the latest satellite CAPE “may” be creeping west with the clearing and some storms showing some CI potential but nothing higher than 50-60% so far. RAP guidance doesn’t have the cold front moving through the region until after 21-22z. It also shows convective indices decreasing after that.

Summary? If we get any storms it will likely be before 22-23z moving west to east along the front. I don’t think the instability/shear is strong enough to get any significant initiation along the pre-frontal trough. I have highest confidence that areas to the south will get convection with the trough and/or the cold front.