There are coastal thunderstorms in Monroe and Collier counties in southwest Florida indicating low severe probability initially.

Interestingly enough, the sample indicated extremely high cape, low shear, but the qualitative descriptor for storm growth indicated ‘strong.’ I followed this storm from approx 1652z and watched storm development. Even though severe limits might have been low, the storm did continue to grow (which was indicated).  By 1820Z you can see the storm has remained onshore moving NNW into nw Collier County. The thunderstorm continued to grow indicated by the qualitative descriptor. This hit a 72% probability of going severe at it’s height, before subsequently pulsing down. Still, the descriptor was accurate and helpful in identifying storm growth. Interestingly enough, these cape values do not come close to matching interpolated cape values from the other GOES product (much lower).

UFFSU