Here is an example just outside the PIH CWA that shows a cell with very low ProbSevere (~1%), but with MESH of 1.26 in. It appears the low ProbSevere is a result of Env MUCAPE of only ~350 J/KG. Base radar analysis showed that this cell did strengthen, with a very brief period of 50 dBZ to ~ -25 C.

The pulse nature of the cell can also be seen in the total lightning time series. Where a brief period (~10 min) of > 10 flashes per minute was observed, before quickly dissipating.

Ertel