Current conditions over the PIH CWA appear to be only marginally favorable for severe convection as region comes under the influence of large upper level low. Instability is the main limiting factor with CAPE values remaining AOB 500 J/KG…with current CAPE values based on the GOES sounder AOB 200 J/KG, although they have been increasing.

Deep layer shear is generally b/w 30-40 kts, which could allow for any storms that do form to become briefly organized. Layer PWATs (based on the GOES product) in the western portion of the CWA are near the 75% (~0.6 in) and are mostly confined in the 900-700 mb layer.

Overall, expect marginally severe wind gusts to be the main threat with any stronger storms that develop.

Ertel