Updated at 430pm.

So the first thing we thought when we started to write this was the CI was having an issue “tracking” the cells because I couldn’t tell which cell actually developed out of all the cells the CI was indicating. This is part of the problem because some cells can get above 35dbz pretty quickly and between 15 min satellite scans.

 

Here at 1930Z, look at the area of light blue CI on the VA/NC border.

Next, at 1945z… it is hard to see because I didn’t circle anything but the dark blue is actually farther north, different cells, than where the previous light blue was indicating.

Next, at 20z, all CI probs are gone, indicating the storm likely got to 35dbz or didn’t form. And actually at 20z, a single lightning flash came up on ENI data.

Now, at 2015z, there is much more intercloud lightning flashes.

Lastly, at 2030z, the ProbSvr is at 13% and there are more lightning flashes with this storm.

 

The takeaway? First, it was quite confusing trying to go back and “track” which cloud the CI was tracking. Second, once I figured it out, the CI was less than 20% and for only 30 minutes until the storm developed. There is CI over 50-60% all over the Mid Atlantic right now and none of them are initiating. I found it quite interesting how quickly this one formed and it probably formed between the 15 min satellite scans making it hard to track.

Update::

I continued to follow this storm.

At 2040Z, the ProbSvr increased.

At 2050z, it increased again.

At 2052z, ProbSvr increased significantly. NWS issued a warning at 2054 (not that I am supposed to know that).

I didn’t have Raleigh’s or Wakefield’s radar up on my awips but I did get it at 2108 and there is already a hail spike.

 

At 2112z, the NWS received its first 1 inch hail report!

 

Lauren13