Used satellite LAP algorithm to track the change in the environment over the course of the afternoon. Best instability was in the southeast CWA. Overlayed one hour total lightning with the CAPES and LI to see how the coverage of storms lined up with the best instability. Image shows this overlay at 21z.

Ongoing MCS from this morning accounted for the lightning east and south of the forecast area. Narrow strip of lightning west of the better instability was where outflow boundary intersected cold front/dry line. This area had better low level lapse rates and more time to recover after the morning MCS.

The mesoanalysis from SPC showed much higher CAPS at 21 and 22z than the values from the LAP algorithm. SPC was 1000-1500 J/KG while satellite derived was less than 500 J/KG.

Lynford