First glance at GOES-R products indicates a CAPE gradient from around 700 J/KG for the southern portions of the GID CWA to about 200 J/KG for the northern portions of the CWA. We had a satellite data outage affecting CAPE/PWATs at 17Z. The southern portions of the CWA remain in an area of confluence between southwesterly flow DDC area and southeasterly flow from the ICT/TOP area. Satellite PWATs remain above 1 inch across the region with surface dewpoints in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Initial look at radar indicates multicellular appearance for southern portions of GID. Viewed the adjusted NUCAPS sounding around 19Z and found CAPE values near 2000 J/KG. Biggest threat appears to be large hail, damaging wind gusts, and isolated tornadoes.

So far have noted a few hail cores aloft with All-tilts though ProbSevere has remained mostly below 50%. The westernmost SVR warning (#2) had 60 dBZ to near -25 C. One cell approaching from the south possessed rotation in the lower levels and thus we issued a TOR warning. ProbSevere for the TOR built as high as 64%.

Brick Tamland/Alexander Darkband