Another cell developing to the east of the two previously warned cells provided another opportunity to use both ProbSevere and Lightning Jump Detection Algorithm in conjunction to issue a Severe Thunderstorm Warning.

Really started to see an increase in the mid level reflectivity on the storm and during that time the ProbSevere increased from 8% at 2204Z to 64% at 2208Z.

At that point, we were starting to think about issuing a SVR and as we were making that decision, there was a 5 sigma lightning jump noted. That data arrived before the next version of ProbSevere arrived but tied in with the increase shown in the previous couple scans. At that point, we decided to issue the SVR and our thought was confirmed by the next version of ProbSevere increasing to 84% with a MESH value of 1.25″.

The warning was issued at 2217Z and the ProbSevere value reached 94% with a MESH of 2″ as the warning was issued.

Although the experience with these two products has been limited thus far, they have shown to work well in conjunction with the radar analysis to lead to increasing confidence on issuing a warning during rapid intensification.

-SRF