While observing the Probability of severe throughout the event today, I have noticed that it seems to do well when there are discrete or individual convective cells and was useful in the warning operations when combined with the base data we were looking at interrogating the storms.  The storm we originally warned on seen in the image below had high prob severe values and verified with a 60 mph wind gust report.

However, later in the event the convection became linear and looking at the base data interrogating the storm there was not evidence supporting a warning along the line as the 50dbz cores were relatively low and the line of storms had become outflow dominated with the outflow boundary pushing well away from the storms.  The probability of severe though was showing values near 85% along the entire line.

So I think it is important to note for the users of this product that when the convection becomes linear the probability of severe may not be as useful and should not be as relied on compared to individual convective storm environments.

Jack Bauer