3rd severe warning for a hail core over southwestern Ottawa county, moving northeast. Lightning Jump Algorithm jumped over 4 sigmas around the time when the hail core aloft looked the best. ProbSevere jumped from 69% to 92% with MESH building to over 1.50 inches. DTA came out well in advance though it overlaid with a 2nd, more appropriate DTA, related to the more intense storm approaching from the south. Although fairly large area of 60 dBZ above -20 C, and MESH at 1.50 inches, only used 1 inch hail in warning due to lack of large hail reports during the afternoon.

Brick Tamland