Another shot at the OT algorithm.  The OTs are placed over the IR satellite in the upper left and are very much bias towards this imagery.

Looking to the right at visible satellite imagery, clearly only one OT is evident in Gloucester and Atlantic County where 4 are showing.

Thinking about how the forecaster IDs OTs on visibility, it appears to be a sharp/rough contrast of colors that draw the eye in… versus a smoothness of color downstream.

If there was a way to add this to the weighting of the algorithm it may help to discourage False Alarms.    On the other hand that could force it to be a daytime only product…. Unless you set in a series of changing variables based on time and angle of the sun.

Here we have a second OT Detect out over the Atlantic at the edge of the domain . This one does pretty good.  This got me thinking… This Algorithm may be best used for someone like the AWC which needs as much data as possible in a data sparce area such as the oceans.

If a greater than 50% chance of severe damage could be directly coorelated to OTs on land…. then they probably would be helpful in identifying Convective SIGMETs areas in a data sparse region over the ocean.

Just Ideas…

Grant H.