I issued the first OHX experimental severe thunderstorm warning for the day, based primarily on traditional radar analysis and utilizing the prob. severe model. When two cells merged at the Monroe/Barren/Allen county borders in LMK’s CWA, the prob. severe model indicated an 81% chance of severe and then one volume scan later, the probability jumped up to 97%.

While I didn’t use these products as the basis for my warning, I went back to look at the SRSOR and OTD products. They clearly show the cell merger and significant updraft growth over the course of the last hour.

~Linda

**Update: Trees were reported down in Clay County, TN.

*** Just a note, the OTD’s appear shifted to the west (and only appear every several minutes) because these detections are from GOES-East, while the satellite imagery in this animation is 1-minute GOES-14. – BL