I was checking out the NSSL-WRF Simulated Satellite Imagery compared to the actual IR Satellite and it verified pretty well.  You can see low clouds over parts of Iowa and Nebraska and the idea of the vertically taller clouds is there..just not exactly in the same location.  At this point I like the idea of the model.

So if I go with this model you can see below convection would initiate between 22-23Z over Central Iowa and S. Wisconsin bordering N. Illinois and then move East-Southeast.

This actually would be supported since the environment looks unstable that it is moving into.  You can see on the Nearcast GOES Vertical Theta E Diff Mid Low that the high instability is from Central Iowa to N. Illinois and it looks like a boundary is there as well.

So now we shall wait and see if this actually occurs. My watered down mesoscale discussion – Vollmar