Severe t-storms are a possibility through the afternoon in the High Plains around WY, CO, NE.

NAM, GFS agree on a low on the E. Colorado/W. Kansas area strengthening some through the afternoon, increasing the easterly, upslope flow into the area.  This will also serve to advect higher moisture content from the east…something we see in the Nearcast precip. H2O analysis

Ongoing convection in WY in combination with plenty of cirrus over the area of concern has limited for now the use of the CI product.  Plenty of clearer air farther southeast in KS outside of the area of immediate concern.

The Nearcast vertical theta-e difference product shows a band if instability along the WY, CO border and on into western NE.  The model forecast shows a maximum in instability near the WY, NE border at 22Z.

As ongoing convection in WY emerges into warmer, ore unstable air to the east, there is an expectation that storms will intensify.  Also need to be on the lookout for any thinning in the cirrus shield over the next few hours in NE as we could see more development out here.

Storm motion should be to the northeast.  Low freezing levels may lead to very large hail.  Looking at the 22Z Nearcast forecast difference in PW between the low and mid-levels, higher values are seen in the area of concern…drier air aloft could assist in downdrafts and damaging wind production.

Will monitor impulses rounding the upper trough to the west for increased vertical motion through the afternoon/evening.-db