Very dry air in the low and mid levels has been hard to overcome early this afternoon. Cumulus development and shower activity has been elevated, resulting in virga. Moisture will try to make a return late this evening, along with some instability. A short wave will round the main trough later, as well. Storm initiation will be concentrated in North Central Texas and Southwest Oklahoma mainly after 5 p.m. Upper level westerly winds of 50-55 knots move in with lower level south-southwesterly winds of around 30 knots may be conducive for some discrete cells to development. Though conditions are marginal, storms may briefly become strong before running into drier, more stable air later in the evening.

Jared Maples