Convective initiation has once again lined up pretty well with the instability depicted on the theta-e difference graphic in the nearcast. I have now seen this in a couple of cases. The nearcast forecast brings some instability north into Oklahoma later this evening. It will be interesting to see how this lines up with the convection at that time, as the HRRR model has shown some decent development across portions of North Central Texas and Southwestern Oklahoma.

Jared Maples