Updraft in north central Colfax county may actually push the severe limits. 40 dbz is reaching higher into the cloud (we are reaching here). The visible cloud presentation has become more intriguing. Lightning has also been detected with this thunderstorms for the first time today.

Cloud top cooling product has shown -11 degrees C, well below our severe threshold, but it is a start.. However, MESH is still underwhelming despite the slight increase. We are still not confident in much activity making off the higher elevations, and the latest run of the OUN WRF continues to support our forecast.

Cloud-top cooling product:

MESH at the same time (look closely, it;s there):

It’s getting bigger. MESH at 2214z is now up to 0.40″.

and as I write this, the temporary strengthening ceased. Now onto storms in the southern ABQ CWA.