Latest run of OUN WRF at 20z still paints convective initiation to occur over the southern portion of the South Plains for 2030z.

Looking at satellite imagery with convective initiation overlaid, convection still is struggling to grow over the region. May be another indication that the OUN WRF initiates convection too soon. But still think that the area will still see organized convection but just a bit later.

Tim/Ty