MCS in MEG – warning decision making #1

Began using the 3DVAR and MRMS data. The max updraft jumped over Monroe county to 17-19 m/s. This is along the leading edge of the MCS over the higher CAPE over eastern AR. A nice swath of 0.5-1.25 in MESH along this NW to SE oriented path is associated with this cell. Now that this cell is crossing into the MEG warning area, have issued an SVR for 60 mph winds and hail to half dollar size, based on the history of MESH, and a favorable, high CAPE environment. If the warning had a longer time period (1-3 hours), we might “draw” a longer-duration polygon based on the swath with larger hail potential (1.5-1.75 in).

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