Started looking at NEARCAST 780-500mb CAPE vs RAP13 (aka RUC13) 850-700mb computed CAPE. 2hr fcst valid 2200UTC. Realizing that we cannot compare these two fields 1-for-1, the NEARCAST CAPE seems more accurate compared with the location of the MCS precip and cloud field.

See the vis satellite image and obs from 21Z for more “truth”.

We expect the storms along the leading edge and flanking edge to the west of Memphis along I-40 to continue to intensify. Will continue to watch the NEARCAST and CI images for new trends.

SNELSON / TY