JAN: Comparison of 3DVAR/MRMS with 88D legacy hail guidance

A fair discrepancy between 88D hail algorithm output and MRMS MESH and by proxy of updraft and helicity, the 3DVAR. At 2307 UTC, KDGX showed 5 storms with max hail of 1.00-1.75″ and POSH of 70% or greater (2 storms have 90% POSH).  Yet the MESH at 2310 UTC shows only a small area of >1.00″ hail in Bolimar county, MS. The max updraft is > 20 m/s in this same storm, which might imply even larger hail.  FWIW, since this is our first day. Once we get to discuss these fields with experts, perhaps we’ll better understand the MESH grids.

SNELSON/TY

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