OUNWRF is forecasting convective initiation over western half of LUB CWA by 2130-2145z on 5/21 in zone of moderate instability and weakening cap.  However, latest UAH CI product and UW CTC product alongside flat looking cumulus fields per visible satellite imagery would suggest convective initiation may not occur.  This is also supported by seemingly meager convergence per METAR OBS.  Main show may be confined to activity eventually diving southeast out of NM.  Will be interesting to see how things play out.