EWP STATUS FOR 22 MAY 2012: 2-10pm SHIFT

Currently, it appears that we will be operating in the North Dakota region tomorrow…

Early on, the cap combined with a narrow area of boundary layer moisture (50-60F dewpoints) seem to be a bit of a concern, but forcing associated with a cold front later in the evening should assure convection.  If initiation can occur earlier in the day ahead of the front and along the dryline, shear profiles indicate supercells with large hail will be the most likely mode of convection before transitioning to a line/MCS by the overnight hours.

With the concerns limiting convection earlier in the day, we’ve elected to go with 2-10 pm shift Tues.

-Kristin Calhoun, EWP 2012 Week 3 Coordinator