Monitoring & Forecasting DVN Convection

Posted in Live Blogs on by Kristin C.

Despite strong indications from the NSSL-WRF SimuSat imagery, convection in the DVN CWA has stayed rather benign.  The NSSL-WRF appears to have overestimated the low-level prefrontal moisture.

SimuSat Imagery at Top, IR Imagery at Bottom, valid 2100 UTC 2012-05-15
SimuSat Imagery at Top, IR Imagery at Bottom, valid 2100 UTC 2012-05-15

The GOES-R NearCast Theta-E Low vs. Mid-Level Theta-E image indicates very little destabilization ahead of the front (in fact, it actually indicates increased stability).  This is consistent with surface dewpoints in the 30s and 40s reported ahead of the front.

GOES-R NearCast valid 2030 UTC 2012-05-15
GOES-R NearCast Theta-E Difference valid 2030 UTC 2012-05-15

There have been a few cloud-to-ground lightning strikes just to the northeast, and the 3DVAR and MRMS data have helped to monitor the convection across multiple CWAs and on the edges of multiple radars.

3DVAR Analysis valid 2120 UTC 2012-05-15
3DVAR Analysis of Reflectivity, Updraft composite, 30 Minute Updraft Accumulation, and 1km/10km Divergence, valid 2120 UTC 2012-05-15
MRMS Surface Merged Reflectivity, -20C Reflectivity, VIL, and MESH valid 2114 UTC 2012-0515
MRMS Surface Merged Reflectivity, -20C Reflectivity, VIL, and MESH valid 2114 UTC 2012-0515