Today was an active day for our visiting forecasters, but not in the way we were originally expecting at the end of the previous shift with models initially forecasting development of supercells along the dryline in central and western Oklahoma.  As the CI forecasters began their morning forecast, it was already evident that the ongoing convection in western Oklahoma had greatly modified the forecast from the day before.  Initially, none of the high-resolution models had a handle on the overnight convection, but the OUN-WRF and HRRR were beginning to modify with each successive run, keying in on the development of MCS moving across Oklahoma and the possibility of rotating storms further north near the CO/KS border associated with the closed Low.

The split of forecasters between these two regions seemed to work out well.  Forecasters focusing on the Oklahoma region were able to examine both the pGLM over the Oklahoma LMA network and 3D-VAR data as the MCS reached its peak strength.  Meanwhile, GLD and DDC forecasters monitored CI and later were able to incorporate 3D-VAR data in their analysis as things wound down in central Oklahoma and we moved to the floater domain.  While none of these storms produced tornadoes, the vorticity product from the 3D-VAR was easily incorporated into the analyses and seemed to prove useful in the warning decision process.

-K. Kuhlman (weekly coordinator)