Forecaster Thoughts – Frank Alsheimer (2010 Week 8 – MRMS/GOES-R)

I took part in the EWP for a week during June. I was able to experimentally use satellite and lightning products from the GOES-R Proving Ground applications as well as algorithms and products from the Multi-Radar/Multi-Sensor project. I will talk about the benefits and weaknesses of both.

GOES-R products — The products I got to experiment with were the convective initiation, overshooting tops, and the pseudo-lightning. I see both promise and limitations, but some of the limitations will be rectified once GOES-R becomes reality.

Convective Initiation — During the week of the experiment, I found myself only occasionally being able to use the product. The lack of ability to detect initiation through cirrus is a major drawback, significantly limiting the number of signals. However, some of that may have been due to issues with the satellite images themselves on which the algorithm is based. Especially noticeable was a one hour period around 00Z when we only got 3 images in an hour’s time. That really made it hard for the algorithm to do its job up to its potential, and therefore made it difficult to give it a true workout for when it would be operational with GOES-R. In theory, the product would have use in operations before a convective event begins.

Overshooting Tops — There were a few more opportunities during the week to see this algorithm in action.While it did a good job in determining many of the overshooting tops during the events I worked, I did not get a whole lot of additional lead time over just using traditional radar interrogation. This is another case, however, where more frequent (at least every 5 minute) images from the GOES-R satellite may show more benefit to the product.

Pseudo Lightning — I found this product to be complimentary to, and in a few cases superior to, the ground based lightning detection networks to which we currently have access. There was one specific real-time case I remember where the total lightning product actual gave lead time to a cell that had become electrically active over both traditional radar interrogation methods as well as the ground based lightning network. This is very important since many lightning fatalities are recorded with the first strike. It will also prove very beneficial as we get more into decision support services, especially to support the safety of responders to incidents who are exposed to lightning hazards.

Multi-Radar/Multi-Sensor — I found some of these products more beneficial than others. I will talk about each grouping of products individually.

Gridded Hail Detection Algorithm (HDA) products — The bias-corrected version of the MESH algorithm created a product that was far superior to the current MESH algorithm associated with individual radars during the week I participated in the test. Once I got used to the product, I used it as a primary tool in the warning decision process and would definitely use it regularly were it available in the AWIPS system at my office. The non-bias corrected product was not quite as reliable, but it was still nice to have a product that updated more frequently than any VCP we have available today, as well as helped to mitigate the “cone of silence” issue we have with individual radars. I used the 30 minute swaths occasional when following a supercell, but did not find a lot of real-time use for the 120 minute swath products.

Hail/Lightning/Convective diagnostic products — The most beneficial of these products was the reflectivity products at specific temperature altitudes, especially the -20degC. The two minute updates of these products helped to identify rapidly increasing convective cores. The 50 dBZ echo tops as well as the height of the 50 dBZ above specific temperature levels (i.e. 0degC and -20degC) was also beneficial, but 60 dBZ would likely have been a better product to access. I didn’t find much use  for the VIL, VIL Density, and LRA products, although I have to say I didn’t really use them a  whole lot once I found some of the other products I liked better.

Derived Shear Products —  I found some cases where the products were helpful and some others where it was not. It has a tendency to increase values as one gets closer to an RDA because of the weighting process, which is a bit of an issue at times (although it’s an issue on the individual radars as well). Similar to the HDA products, I thought the 30 minute tracks had some benefit for tracking purposes, but not so much the 120 minute.

Cloud-To-Ground Lightning Products — I found the density product useful as it gave a discreet value which could be compared both to the trend of the cell in question as well as other cells. It would occasionally be better than the individual strike product we currently get on AWIPS because it was easier to discern the lightning frequency near an individual cell.

Frank Alsheimer (Science and Operations Officer, NWS Charleston SC – Week 8 Evaluator)

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