Forecaster Thoughts – Chris Wielki (2009 Week 3)

The EWP was a great experience and I couldn’t really ask for much more. As a meteorologist from outside of the United States I was somewhat uncertain what to expect but what I found impressed me. Technologies that we used throughout the week were useful and the exchange of ideas between researchers and meteorologists is something we too should strive for. The highlight was Wednesday when several tornadic supercells developed over Oklahoma with one passing through the CASA domain. The 3Dvar set the stage for the supercell entering the CASA domain and had us thinking about a tornado potential before appearing on the casa radars.  When the cell moved into the CASA domain the rotation was apparent and we were able to send the warning quickly. The strong winds that followed the tornado were easy to identify in the CASA dataset and warnings could likely be narrowed down as confidence increases with the use of these x-band radars. The WSR-88D data also showed the TVS however it was after the CASA data showing an obvious potential to improve lead times. PAR data and scanning strategies didn’t have any apparent faults and with the improved resolution and frequency I feel features would be singled out earlier in an event and once again lead times would increase. The LMA data has potential but I felt that I would have to get more comfortable with it and develop a conceptual model of what to expect with larger supercells. Picking out a peak in the LMA data would prove to be difficult but the graphical tool on Google earth was useful and could increase confidence in warnings already issued. There may be potential to use the LMA data for storm splitting since it would show the two updrafts however cases showing a split were limited. Last of all were the multi-radar/sensor algorithms. Returning to my office without products such as the MEHS, Reflectivity at -20, MEHS and rotation tracks will prove to be a difficult experience.

Chris Wielki (Prairie and Arctic Storm Prediction Center, Edmonton, AB – 2009 Week 3 Evaluator)

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