I felt quite fortunate to be able to look at real-time CASA/PAR data sets. Although the amount of time and coverage of echoes was fairly limited, being able to see the rapid updates in real-time was valuable. Along with the higher resolution of CASA data, the increased frequency volume scans from both CASA and PAR appear to be challenges for the operational forecasters. The faster updates do not allow a lot of time for base data interrogation/interpretation, so forecasters will need to be more selective in what data to interrogate. This is primarily a training issue, to varying degrees, for each forecaster.

On two different days, we were able to work with probabilistic warnings in real-time, and from an operational forecaster perspective, I see great utility with this program. Currently, it can be quite difficult to get the overall thinking of the warning forecaster(s) across to his/her users and partners. There are shades of uncertainty that cannot be conveyed with the warn-no warn concept. Being able to issue probabilistic information should provide much more useful information to our partners and more sophisticated users. Conveying information probabilistically will allow some of our more advanced users to “get into the head of the warning forecaster”. During our probabilistic operations we mainly dealt with discrete supercells, and after a minimal amount of time, became somewhat proficient at issuing single and even multiple threat probabilities. However, I could see it being more challenging with squall lines and LEWP events.

I enjoyed the time I spent in the EWP, and am grateful for being able to work with such talented scientists.

Kevin Brown (WFO Norman OK – Week 5 Participant)