We have potential for a Prob-Warn exercise this afternoon across the high plains adjacent to the mountains of eastern Wyoming through eastern New Mexico. Thunderstorms are not imminent, however, so to make the most of this shortened week, we will run archive PAR and CASA events between 1830 and 2030 UTC. The forecaster teams will be the same as yesterday, with Kevin and Eric moving over to the CASA desk and Mark and Brad working PAR.

Training on probabilistic warnings will ensue between 2030 and 2200 UTC. We then intend to run Prob-Warn operations in eastern New Mexico from 2200-0200 UTC. Moderate southwesterly upper flow is in place on the far western high plains, while moist southeasterly low-level upslope is increasing. A stalled frontal boundary will begin to lift northward through New Mexico this afternoon, and veering wind profiles north of the front will favor rotation with updrafts initiating in the deep mixing zone along the high terrain. Deep layer shear may actually be stronger up north toward Wyoming…but greater moisture/instablity, and a potentially wider CAPE axis favors operations in northeast New Mexico…where several models, including the short range ensemble, suggest a high probability of thunderstorms. The SPC has outlooked that area with a Slight Risk, including a small 5% tornado contour.

Patrick Burke (EWP Weekly Coordinator, 27-30 May)