Archive Cases Ending…Prob Warn Training to Begin

Our teams are filling out PAR and CASA evaluations following their archived events.

Kevin/Eric discussed how to best display CASA data. They would like to be able to easily choose one radar and tilt up to higher elevation. They like the utility of CASA at low levels for wind/tornado threat without much thought to hail threat.

Yesterday…they were hanging on every 1-minute update with PAR, looking intently for changes in storm character. They did not experience the same type of anticipation with CASA today. This could be related to the case selection. Some positives they point out are the fine spatial resolution and near ground sampling.

With both PAR and CASA, Kevin sees need for substantial training to avoid dramatic increase in false alarm rate. These small scale signatures and short-lived shear couplets or RFDs have always been out there. Now that we can see them, it doesn’t necessarily mean we should be warning for each of them.

Brad/Eric are discussing when additional information becomes too much. “Rarely would a meteorologist decline more information, but in some cases it just becomes more on the floor (or tossed aside).”

All forecasters are moving to a seminar room for training on Probabilistic Warnings from 2045-2130 UTC.

Patrick Burke (EWP Weekly Coordinator, 27-30 May)