Our four forecaster/evaluators (Eric Stevens, Brad Colman, Mark Melsness, and Kevin Brown) arrived at the NWC early this afternoon, and are ready to hit the ground running in this Holiday-shortened week. Today should be our best chance for a central Oklahoma IOP, so we have split the forecasters among PAR and CASA for training on those programs through 3 pm. After checking the weather… we may be able to swap and allow the groups to train on both programs. If weather dictates that operations begin prior to 5 pm, however, we will forego WDSSii Training. Kevin has WDDS experience, and other scientists are available to either drive WDSS or train the other forecaster “on the fly.”

The forecast is for thunderstorms to initiate near the intersection of a cold front and outflow boundary in northwest or west central Oklahoma. Other storms may initiate farther south along the outflow boundary toward southwest Oklahoma and western north Texas. Storms should then move east and southeast toward the PAR and CASA domains, although some southward propagation may occur within the instability axis. The northeastward extent of this activity toward central Oklahoma is somewhat in question…as that area was overturned by an MCS earlier today. At worst…we expect a few severe storms at long range but within the PAR domain. At best…we could have severe storms in both the PAR and CASA domain by early to mid evening. The Shear/CAPE combination is sufficient for rotating storms…and even a tornado threat just east of the outflow boundary…although weak mid level winds may lead to a quick transition toward high precipitation character.

Patrick Burke (EWP Weekly Coordinator, 27-30 May)