Gridded Warning Discussion:

We sectorized warnings in TX–north (Ron and Dan M.) and south (Dan P. and Dave). Both groups focused on all three threats (wind, hail and tornado), targeting 2-4 storms each.

Would like to sync multiple threat types for same storm, such that if storm motion is changed for the hail threat and then update (if chosen) coincidently for wind and tornado for that storm. (Could try on a case such as Greensburg where you have to separate tornado threats with different storm motions.)

Felt like lost concentration as moved in ’round-robin’ from storm to storm. Possibly focused on too many storms.

Sig hail, Sig Wind options–on top of other three threats–add to the amount of data a forecaster must maintain, but seem necessary. 100% pea-sized hail or 100% baseball hail or possibility instead state for exceedance of a level: e.g., 100% prob of nickel size, 40% prob for > golf ball.

Pulsing storms for group 1 caused constant updates in trend, sometimes trends would be changed quickly from one update to the next. *Do the forecasters worry about continuity or accuracy more? * Second group dealt with storms that maintained more continuity and followed conceptional model of HP storms, so confidence in hail and wind threats especially was particularly high.

In terms of software, would like interface such that forecasters could draw trend in line graph (e.g, bell shape or up and then flatten).

Kristin Kuhlman (PAR Cognizant Scientist)