Using a dual-pol radar feature to anticipate downburst development

Downbursts—an area of strong winds in a thunderstorm—can damage trees and buildings, disrupt air travel, and cause loss of life. Decades of work by scientists has revealed a lot of information about downbursts including certain features seen on radar, known as precursor signatures, that can help forecasters anticipate when a downburst might develop. However, downbursts are still quite challenging to predict—especially in low-shear, summer-time thunderstorms—perhaps because the downbursts and their precursor signatures can develop quickly and be difficult to observe. 

Therefore, researchers at the University of Oklahoma Cooperative Institute for Mesoscale Meteorological Studies with the NOAA National Severe Storms Laboratory decided to look into it further. They studied  a dual-pol radar feature, known as a specific differential phase (KDP) core, because it could provide information about important processes that cause a downdraft to develop and get stronger. Our research shows KDP cores could be a reliable and easily observable downburst precursor signature that can help NOAA National Weather Service forecasters predict where a downburst could develop next. 

Our research began one afternoon in the halls of the National Weather Center in Norman, Oklahoma, when Randy Bowers, a forecaster at the NOAA National Weather Service Norman Forecast Office (OUN) and I (Charles Kuster, a research scientist with the CIMMS working at NSSL), were having an informal discussion about a completely unrelated topic. At the end of our conversation, Randy mentioned seeing a consistent area of high KDP—the KDP core— while issuing severe thunderstorm warnings and wondered if we could do some research on it together. I had been looking for opportunities to work more with forecasters, so this topic sounded like an amazing opportunity. We jumped in and began identifying potential cases, collecting data with a research radar in Norman, and brainstorming how to best study KDP cores.

The KOUN radar with storm clouds behind it.
The NOAA National Severe Storms Laboratory research radar collects data on a downburst-producing thunderstorm in Norman, Oklahoma. (Photo by Charles Kuster, OU CIMMS/NSSL)

Ultimately, we selected 81 downbursts in 10 different states to analyze. I got to work on comparing the size, magnitude, and vertical changes in the KDP cores associated with strong and weak downbursts, while Randy examined atmospheric conditions and possible warning applications. We also began working with Jacob Carlin, a CIMMS research scientist also working at NSSL, who explored model simulations of downdrafts and important microphysical processes—such as melting and evaporation—that can result in a stronger downburst. Another research scientist, Terry Schuur (OU CIMMS/NSSL), also brought microphysics expertise and experience to the team while researchers Jeff Brogden (OU CIMMS/NSSL) and Robert Toomey (OU CIMMS/NSSL) provided extensive support and expertise in radar data analysis software. Andy Dean, a forecaster with the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center, provided data about atmospheric conditions around the downbursts.

Together, we determined KDP cores were a reliable downburst precursor signature in the events we studied. All 81 downbursts were preceded by a KDP core by as much as 30 minutes. The KDP core also reached its maximum intensity, typically about 10–15 minutes before the downburst reached its maximum intensity. In addition, there were very few instances where a KDP core was observed and no downburst occurred (i.e., very few null events).

Anticipating downburst intensity using KDP cores was more challenging because there was overlap between the characteristics of KDP cores associated with strong and weak downbursts, but in general, a stronger KDP core was more likely to be associated with a stronger downburst.

We also found the atmospheric conditions during each event were very important. When atmospheric conditions were less favorable for downburst development, we observed stronger KDP cores, which likely means more melting, precipitation loading, and evaporation are needed for a downburst to develop in such conditions. Ultimately, our work showed KDP cores provide a good signal that a downburst is likely to develop soon, assuming atmospheric conditions are favorable for downburst development, and can help forecasters triage storms to determine which one has the highest chance of producing a downburst.

A screenshot of a graph showing the KDP Core Size Near Melting Layer for all Downbursts.
KDP core size (red line) generally increases in the 30-minute period prior to downburst development. (Photo provided)
A photo montage showing the development of the KDP core.
Example of a KDP core in mid-levels of a thunderstorm (i.e., near the melting layer) and the associated downburst near the ground seen in Doppler velocity data (V). In the velocity images, red colors show air moving away from the radar and green colors show air moving towards the radar. (Photo provided)

We would like to thank everyone who has made this research possible so far and those who continue to help push it forward. Everyone from the CIMMS and NSSL administrative staff, NSSL IT, radar engineers, NOAA National Weather Service Norman Forecast Office, and webinar organizers are very much appreciated. For any questions, please contact nssl.outreach@noaa.gov or see https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-21-0005.1 for more detailed information.

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Leader, engineer, and innovator in Doppler radar passes away

Richard “Dick” Doviak

Richard “Dick” Doviak, a renowned radar engineer and professor, passed away recently.

Research conducted by Doviak and others at the NOAA National Severe Storms Laboratory helped convince the NOAA National Weather Service of Doppler radar’s crucial use as a forecasting tool. Their work led to the installation of a network of NEXRAD Doppler radars across the United States in the early 1990s and still in use today. This Doppler technology ultimately revolutionized forecasters’ abilities to understand and track severe weather, saving lives and property.

Doviak’s list of accomplishments is long. He managed several research projects, was a Fellow with both the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers and the American Meteorological Society, and authored many articles published in more than 20 journals spanning interests in geosciences, engineering, physics, and meteorology. He also won a gold medal in the Oklahoma Senior Olympics for bicycling.

“Dick [Doviak] was always warm, generous, and friendly, the kind of person that we all enjoy having chance encounters with,” said Jack Kain, NOAA NSSL Director. “That part of his legacy will live on in all of us, and of course his contributions to science, engineering, and mentoring are legendary – at the lab, OU, and elsewhere. His work forms a large part of the foundation of NSSL, and indeed the national infrastructure, with the radar technology that he developed serving to protect lives and property across the nation every day. At NSSL we are all honored to have known Dick and worked with him.”

His career

Doviak received an invitation to join NOAA NSSL and lead the Doppler Radar Project in December 1971, almost 50 years ago.

“There were two priorities. One was using Doppler radar to study the dynamics of severe thunderstorms,” Doviak said during a “Radar Roundtable.” “The other priority was building a real-time display. I think NSSL had the very first real-time Doppler velocity display in 1972, as a matter of fact.”

Doviak led the radar project until 1987. NSSL spent nearly 30 years researching and developing Doppler radar technology.

However, Doviak considered polarimetric Doppler weather radar the most significant advancement in his field during his time at NOAA. Dual-polarization technology added to NEXRAD about 10 years ago provides National Weather Service forecasters a measure of the size and shape of precipitation and objects, like hail.

These early collaborations and discoveries impacted Doviak’s work and the advice he provided to students throughout his career.

A grayscale WSR-88 radar display from 1979. (NOAA)

His heart

Doviak transitioned as lead on the Doppler Radar Project and became a senior research scientist at NSSL, as well as an affiliate professor with the University of Oklahoma (OU) School of Meteorology and the College of Engineering. One of the main reasons he chose to work at OU was the opportunity to teach and mentor students. Once he arrived, he was instrumental in developing the OU meteorology course on Doppler Radar with fellow NSSL Senior Scientist Dusan Zrnic.

“One thing about Dick is that he was always available to help mentor students,” said Kurt Hondl, NSSL deputy director. “Back when I was a grad student, Dick was always willing to review and discuss my thesis, even though he wasn’t on my Master’s committee.”

Doviak and Zrnic co-authored the book, “Doppler Radar and Weather Observations,” based on their OU course. The book is considered a necessary meteorology text by many in the weather community.

“For a young grad student, it was such a seemingly unreal experience to be discussing my results with Dick and Dusan [Zrnic] who had literally written the book on Doppler Weather Radar Observations. Of all my textbooks over the years, it is the one that I have cracked open time and time again throughout my career,” Hondl said.

Doviak enjoyed sharing his passion for research with those around him. He wanted to see everyone succeed. Researcher Sebastian Torres recalls one of his first projects as a Cooperative Institute for Mesoscale Meteorological Studies (CIMMS) researcher. In the late 1990s, Torres was working with Doviak to measure radiation patterns of the local KOUN Weather Surveillance Radar antenna. This research would serve as a proof-of-concept for the eventual upgrade of the entire NEXRAD network in the early 2010s.

“As a very inexperienced researcher, Dick caringly held my hand through complex data analysis processes and, with his characteristic humbleness, mentored me on the production of figures for formal publications,” Torres said. “Throughout this process, Dick taught me a very valuable lesson that has served me well in my scientific career: pay attention to every detail and leave no stone unturned. You never know where the key that opens the next big discovery will be.”

Sebastian said he will always remember Doviak’s inspiring enthusiasm and contagious joy for inquiry and discovery.

Doviak practiced the art of being good at your work, enjoying life, and being kind to everyone. Mass of Christian Burial will be celebrated and live-streamed from St. Thomas More University Parish, Norman, Oklahoma, at 11:00 am CT on March 23, 2021. A celebration of life is planned once everything is safer. Donations are encouraged to the American Cancer Society.

Staff photo of NSSL employees in 2012
Dick Doviak, top left laying on the concrete barrier, at an NOAA NSSL staff photo in 2012. (Photo by James Murnan/NOAA)

Richard “Dick” Doviak’s Awards

  • 1980 NOAA Outstanding Scientific Paper
  • 1981 NASA Group Achievement Award for distinguished scientific contributions to the definition, planning, and execution of the Doppler Lidar 1981 Flight Experiment.
  • 1982 NOAA Outstanding Scientific Paper
  • 1988 IEEE Fellow
  • 1988 IEEE Harry Diamon Memorial Award for outstanding technical contributions in the field of government services in any country.
  • 1993 IEEE Geoscience and Remote Sensing Society Outstanding Service Award
  • 1999 AMS Fellow
  • 2014 NOAA Distinguished Career Award “for development of breakthrough radar methods that have greatly enhanced operational severe weather detection and advanced meteorological research.”
  • 2016 Remote Sensing Prize for “fundamental contributions to weather radar science and technology, with applications to observations of severe storms and tropospheric winds.”
Dick Doviak receiving an award from former NSSL Director Steve Koch. (Photo by James Murnan/NSSL)

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Researcher awarded at international radar conference

The American Meteorological Society recently awarded a researcher for his contributions to the weather radar community.

David Schvartzman presenting at the 39th AMS International Conference on Radar Meteorology. (Photo provided)

University of Oklahoma Cooperative Institute for Mesoscale Meteorological Studies researcher David Schvartzman was awarded the AMS Spiros G. Geotis Student Prize. Schvartzman is a full-time researcher and a PhD candidate in Electrical and Computer Engineering whose work supports NOAA’s National Severe Storms Laboratory.

The Spiros G. Geotis Student Prize is awarded for an outstanding student paper presented at a technical conference on radar meteorology. His paper, titled “Design of Practical Pulse Compression Waveforms for Polarimetric Phased Array Radar,” presents practical system considerations to design waveforms with the goal of improving polarimetric radar data quality.

Schvartzman was awarded at the 39th AMS International Conference on Radar Meteorology

David Schvartzman at the AMS 39th International Conference on Radar Meteorology with CIMMS Senior Research Scientist Sebastian Torres. (Photo provided)

in Japan. He said he “couldn’t believe it,” when he was told he would be given the award. The award is one of the most prestigious in radar meteorology and it is a national recognition. It will be awarded at the 100th AMS Annual Meeting in Boston on January 2020.

“I feel very grateful and honored by this recognition, and I’m glad that my scientific efforts are contributing to the radar engineering community,” Schvartzman said. “It means a great deal to me given that there were so many great presentations at the conference, and this is a very important conference in the AMS community. I am very grateful to CIMMS and NOAA NSSL for the continuous support and encouragement to pursue my research ideas.”

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Radar experts publish new book on weather radar technology

When it comes to Doppler weather radar, scientists with NOAA National Severe Storms Laboratory wrote the book. Literally. Publications authored and co-authored by researchers at NSSL and the Cooperative Institute for Mesoscale Meteorological Studies expanded  knowledge on radars and provided strategies used by weather forecasters today.

After more than three decades, those scientists have done it again. A new book by CIMMS Senior Research Scientist Alexander Ryzhkov, and co-authored by NSSL Senior Scientist Dusan Zrnic, highlights the biggest technological upgrade to Doppler radars since they were first installed — dual-polarization technology.

The book, “Radar Polarimetry for Weather Observations,” published by Springer Nature, offers an array of information on weather radar polarimetry. Polarimetric radar —  and polarimetry — improves the accuracy of precipitation estimates, detects aviation hazards, can identify precipitation types, and can spot many other items such as bats or even tornado debris.

In addition to connecting processes responsible for the development and evolution of the bulk of clouds’ physical properties, the publication also provides up-to-date polarimetric methodologies.

The publication will appeal to practicing radar meteorologists, hydrologists, microphysicists, and modelers who are interested in the bulk properties of hydrometeors and quantification of these with the goals to improve precipitation measurements, understanding of precipitation processes, or model forecasts.

For more information, visit Springer’s website.

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Radar improvement helps forecasters to “see” storms better

Radars are a vital tool for weather forecasters because they provide a detailed picture of storms as they’re happening. A new radar technique is improving the picture for forecasters, helping them provide more accurate information about rain and snow storms.

An example of the RBRN technique.

Developed by researchers at University of Oklahoma Cooperative Institute for Mesoscale Meteorological Studies and NOAA’s National Severe Storms Laboratory, the improvement is now being shared with collaborators an ocean away. The United States-based engineers collaborated with meteorologists at the United Kingdom Met Office on the technique called Radial-by-Radial Noise estimator, or RBRN, to improve radar signal returns in storms.

“Through this unique collaboration paradigm, we’ve proven that scientific partnerships can transcend geographical, political and proprietary boundaries,” said Sebastian Torres, CIMMS researcher leading NSSL’s Advanced Radar Techniques Team. “The atmosphere knows no geographical boundaries. Better forecasts in the UK can provide improved information to the United States, and vice versa, as we continue to build partnerships to help save lives, property and minimize the economic impact of severe weather in the U.S.”

Weather radars often pick up noise from various sources like the sun or man-made devices similarly to how a radio or television sometimes retrieve a static signal. The RBRN analyzes radar beam data in real-time and performs several tests to ensure the noise can be detected and measured.

“Accurate measurement of noise on weather radars is critical as it impacts the accuracy of radar data and plays a key role in data quality control,” Torres said.

In addition, a portion of energy from the radar beam may also be absorbed by particles in its path before the radar beam energy is returned.

“This weakens the echoes from locations far from the radar and gives the wrong impression that storms in these locations are weaker than they truly are,” Torres said. “Because the particles in the radar beam path emit noise, the noise measured by RBRN can be used to correct for the weakening or attenuation of echoes as the radar beam intersects storms. The operational RBRN estimator significantly improves the quality of radar data, especially for weak returns associated with snow storms and gust fronts.”

Reducing and accurately measuring contamination from the noise in the radar data equates to better information and more accurate forecasts for the public.

The RBRN was originally developed by CIMMS Researcher Igor Ivic and became operational in the U.S. NEXRAD radar network in 2014.

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NSSL unveils newest radar innovation

NOAA National Severe Storms Laboratory unveiled the newest radar innovation tested at NSSL on Thursday.

The Advanced Technology Demonstrator is the newest in a long line of radar innovations developed and tested at the lab in Norman, Oklahoma. Funded by NOAA and the Federal Aviation Administration, the ATD is the first full-scale, dual polarization phased array radar developed specifically for weather and weather research.

Unlike traditional radars the ATD is a flat panel antenna comprised of 76 panels. It combines the advantages of of phased array radar with the benefits of dual polarization technology. This means the ATD radar beam can steer electronically instead of mechanically, show the size and shape of precipitation while updating faster. This is the first radar combining both technologies designed from the ground up to specifically research weather.

The ATD should be ready to collect weather data during severe weather season next spring.

If the ATD and associated research is successful, we could be looking at NOAA’s radar of the future to improve warnings, protect lives and property, and reduce the economic impact of severe and hazardous weather.

For more information, check out the ATD online.

The Advanced Technology Demonstrator being installed.
The Advanced Technology Demonstrator was installed in the summer of 2018. (Photo by James Murnan/NOAA)
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VIDEO: Advanced Technology Demonstrator

Radar research at the NOAA National Severe Storms Laboratory has taken another step forward. The Advanced Technology Demonstrator is installed at the National Weather Radar Testbed facility and will become fully operational in 2019.

The Advanced Technology Demonstrator, or ATD, is the first full-scale, S-band, dual-polarization phased array radar built from the ground up and designed specifically for use as a weather radar.

A phased array radar is able to steer the radar beam electronically left-to-right and up-and-down while the antenna remains stationary. The ATD has a flat, or planar, antenna comprised of 76 panels with 4,864 radiating elements.

In addition, the ATD features dual polarization technology developed at NSSL and recently added to WSR-88D radars, also known as NEXRAD, throughout the country. The ATD is adding dual polarization technology to phased array technology, combining the benefits of both. The new radar will feature dual-polarization’s ability to show the size and shape of precipitation, and the phased array’s faster updates.

The radar will be used for meteorological studies and to help researchers evaluate polarimetric performance of a planar phased array radar.

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Significant Publication: Cylindrical Polarimetric Phased Array Radar: Beamforming and Calibration for Weather Applications

The following significant paper publication was reported to headquarters the week of June 19. NOAA authors are bolded.

  1. Cylindrical Polarimetric Phased Array Radar: Beamforming and Calibration for Weather Applications

By Fulton, C. (OU ARRC) J. L. Salazar (OU ARRC)Y. Zhang (OU ARRC)G. Zhang (OU ARRC)R. Kelly (OU ARRC)J. Meier (OU ARRC)M. McCord (OU ARRC)D. Schmidt (OU ARRC)A. D. Byrd (OU ARRC)L. M. Bhowmik (OU ARRC)S. Karimkashi (OU ARRC)D. S. Zrnic (NOAA NSSL), R. J. Doviak (NOAA NSSL), A. Zahrai (NOAA NSSL)M. YearyR. D. Palmer.

Published in May 2017 IEEE Transactions on Geoscience and Remote Sensing, Volume 55, Issue 5, pages 2827-2841.

Significance: “Cylindrical arrays can be impacted by the potential of strong surface and creeping wave effects as well as the difficulty of achieving low sidelobes. Even from a pattern-only perspective that neglects the system-level implications of transceiver electronics, backend architecture, calibration, and operational constraints, there are very few available large-array and pattern synthesis techniques for complex antenna element geometries within a cylindrical array framework. This makes it difficult to even simulate electromagnetically accurate cylindrical arraypatterns in an ideal system. Hence, our CPPAR demonstrator allows for many open challenges to be studied in a way that would not otherwise be possible.”

For the full article: http://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/7851048/.

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Collaboration improves UK and US radar techniques to improve forecasts

The national weather radar system used throughout the United States by NOAA National Weather Service  forecasters to “see” weather across the country is unique because it can be upgraded and modified with the newest capabilities, unlike other systems worldwide.

Because of this, and the need to work with experts in radar signal processing for improving the quality of radar data, international partners from the United Kingdom Met Office are collaborating with researchers from The University of Oklahoma Cooperative Institute for Mesoscale Meteorological Studies at the NOAA National Severe Storms Laboratory to develop new techniques for U.K.-based radars.

The U.K. Met Office operated a radar system that did not allow changes and was considered a “commercial off-the-shelf solution.”

“Most weather services in the world purchase radar systems from companies and in those systems, the signal processor is typically a black box,” said Sebastian Torres, senior research scientist with OU CIMMS and NSSL. “The signal processor is a key component in all weather radar systems. Its job is to convert echoes received by the radar into weather images. It’s something most weather services don’t really have access to. They know how it works but they can’t change or improve anything.”

The U.K. Met Office decided to build its own signal processor for their radar systems. This allows a similar degree of flexibility to that of the NEXRAD radars, also known as the WSR-88D (weather surveillance radar-88 Doppler), operated in the United States. NOAA offered some of its tested techniques to the U.K. Met Office and in return received access to valuable data it could use for future research and operations.

Inside every NEXRAD radar is a rotating parabolic antenna. As the antenna rotates, it travels up and around while sending out pulses of electromagnetic energy. When radars send and receive these pulses, buildings and other structures may obstruct the radar’s view, contaminating the storm data.

To help keep unwanted objects from impacting storm data, Torres and fellow CIMMS Researcher David Warde developed two complementary signal-processing techniques for the WSR-88D. One technique, called CLEAN-AP, or Clutter Environment Analysis using Adaptive Processing filter, removes unwanted radar echoes from objects on the ground. The other one, called WET or Weather Environment Thresholding, intelligently decides when the CLEAN-AP filter should be applied. This prevents slow-moving storms from being confused with stationary objects.

NSSL and CIMMS researchers Sebastian Torres and David Warde (second and third person from the left) visited the UK Met Office in Exeter from February 22-26, 2016 to support implementation of CLEAN-AP on the UK weather radar network.

 

“The goal of CLEAN-AP and WET is to clean the data as much as possible so the forecasters have the best data available to make warnings and forecasts,” Torres said.

Through collaboration with the U.K. Met Office, who implemented CLEAN-AP and WET, the techniques were fine-tuned and improved. Both techniques are being transferred to the NOAA National Weather Service, and CLEAN-AP is licensed by OU to U.S. weather radar manufacturer Baron.

CLEAN-AP before and after

 

Another CIMMS Researcher, Igor Ivic, developed a third product transferred to the U.K. called the Radial-by-Radial Noise Estimator. RBRN  improves the quality of radar data by removing “noise,” the radar equivalent of radio static or television static. It was implemented on the U.S. NEXRAD network as part of ongoing research-to-operations efforts at NSSL and CIMMS.

“If you have noise and you can remove it from the radar returns, then you get just the signal, and that can be used to get better quality data,” Torres said.

Torres called the collaboration a “win-win” situation because the information exchange, as well as the new technologies and techniques that have been developed are good for both the U.S. and U.K.

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Q&A with Pam Heinselman

Pam HeinselmanNSSL scientist Pamela Heinselman recently transitioned from our Radar Research Development Division to the Forecast Research Development Division, marking a significant shift in her area of focus. Heinselman has been a research scientist with the Lab since March 2009 and received a Presidential Early Career Award for Science and Engineering in 2009 as well. Previously, she was a collaborator with OU’s Cooperative Institute for Mesoscale Meteorological Studies, where her efforts centered on developing phased array radar through experiments in NOAA’s Hazardous Weather Testbed.

While radar research has long been her passion, Heinselman was ready for a new challenge. For many years, her research concentrated on warning and forecast applications of weather radars. Now, she is applying that experience to develop Warn on Forecast, a program aiming to increase tornado, severe thunderstorm, and flash flood warning lead times.

We sat down with her to get her take on how radar and forecasting work together at NSSL.

Q: What inspired you to make the switch to the Warn-on-Forecast group? What do you hope to accomplish in this new role?

A: What inspired me was the opportunity to engage in new challenges, to be immersed in and learn more about this exciting research area, and to contribute to the success of the Warn-on-Forecast program through my skills and experience.

What I hope to accomplish is to work with our in-house scientists and OAR labs and National Weather Service partners at National Centers and local offices to advance and eventually transfer to operations a cutting-edge forecast system that ultimately improves the ability of individuals, families, and communities to protect their lives and property.

Q: How is your position in FRDD related to your work with radar?

A: My position in FRDD is related to my work with radar in several ways. Most importantly, like Phased Array Radar, the Warn-on-Forecast system under development is cutting-edge technology. While Phased Array Radar is introducing adaptive rapid-radar scanning as a potential replacement for the WSR-88D, Warn-on-Forecast is introducing frequently updating, probabilistic high-impact weather forecast guidance as an integral part of a forecasting paradigm shift, known as Forecasting a Continuum of Environmental Threats (FACETS). Another connection is the Warn-on-Forecast program’s exploration of benefits from assimilating legacy and rapid-scan dual-polarization radar data in these model forecasts.

Q: In your Phased Array Radar Innovative Sensing Experiment, you used eye tracking technology to analyze forecaster decision-making. How will the results of this research be useful in developing Warn-on-Forecast?

A: The results of the eye tracking experiment will shed light on forecaster cognitive processes that will aid the development of forecast visualization techniques optimized for the needs of operational forecasters. Additionally, since currently forecasts rely heavily on radar data in their warning decision process, results of the experiment will help to bridge the use of weather radar data with the use of probabilistic forecast guidance in operations.

Q: What do you see as the biggest challenges and opportunities for radar and forecasting research?

A: One of the biggest challenges for radar and forecasting research is finding creative solutions to known technological issues, such as matching co-polar radar cross-sections, reducing model error, and attaining the computational resources needed for forecasting systems with 1-km or smaller grid spacing.

At the same time, one of the biggest opportunities for radar and forecasting research is to revolutionize the frequency and specificity of high-impact weather observations and forecasts to ultimately provide decision makers with more timely guidance that improves their ability to take protective action well in advance of life-threatening events.

Q: How will Warn-on-Forecast address the need for greater lead time and more accurate weather forecasts?

A: Warn-on-Forecast will address the need for greater lead time and more accurate weather forecasts by producing frequently updated, well-calibrated probabilistic 0 to 6 hour convective-scale analyses and forecast guidance that support high-impact forecast and warning operations within NOAA.

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