April 27 Reddit AMA: Tornado! Severe Weather Research & Prediction with NOAA

Spring has arrived and with it come efforts to study and learn to better predict severe weather like tornadoes. Join NOAA for a Reddit Ask Me Anything (AMA) on severe weather research and prediction on April 27, 2017.

Patrick Marsh, Adam Clark, Kim Klockow and Harold Brooks will take your questions during Thursday’s #Reddit AMA.

Severe weather touches every state in the U.S. Tornadoes, severe thunderstorms, hail, strong winds, and floods are real threats to our property and our lives. The NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed and VORTEX-SE (Verification of the Origins of Rotation in Tornadoes EXperiment-Southeast) are designed to learn more about storms, helping to improve our prediction abilities and bring you better forecasts.

At the National Weather Center, which houses NOAA’s National Severe Storm Laboratory (NSSL) and Storm Prediction Center, as well as the University of Oklahoma Cooperative Institute for Mesoscale Meteorological Studies (CIMMS), our scientists work to better understand and predict severe weather to help everyone be prepared.

Reddit AMA Details

Who:

     Harold Brooks, NOAA NSSL research meteorologist

     Kim Klockow, UCAR scientist at CIMMS

     Adam Clark, NOAA NSSL research meteorologist

     Patrick Marsh, NOAA SPC warning coordination meteorologist

When: Thursday, April 27, 2017, from 9:00 a.m. to 11:00 a.m. CT

Where: Reddit Science AMA series

About the Scientists

Harold Brooks, a senior scientist in the Forecast Research and Development Division of NOAA NSSL, is originally from St. Louis, Missouri. He received a Ph.D. in atmospheric science in 1990 from the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign. He joined NSSL in 1991 as a research meteorologist specializing in tornado climatology.

Adam Clark is a meteorologist with NOAA NSSL and a 2014 Presidential Early Career Award for Scientists and Engineers (PECASE) winner. Originally from Des Moine, Iowa, Clark received his Ph.D. in meteorology and started working at NSSL in 2009. Clark is active in the NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed, which conducts experiments mainly late March and April.

Kim Klockow is a University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR) project scientist at NOAA’s Cooperative Institute for Mesoscale Meteorological Studies at The University of Oklahoma who earned her Ph.D. in Human Geography. Working with the NOAA National Severe Storms Laboratory, her research involves behavioral science focused on weather and climate risk, and explores the effects of risk visualization on judgment and perceptions of severe weather risk from a combination of place-based and cognitive perspectives.

Patrick Marsh is a warning coordination meteorologist at the NOAA National Weather Service’s Storm Prediction Center, which provides forecasts and watches for severe thunderstorms and tornadoes over the contiguous United States. He was born in Georgia but grew up in Arkansas and received his Ph.D. at the University of Oklahoma.

http://research.noaa.gov/News/NewsArchive/LatestNews/TabId/684/ArtMID/1768/ArticleID/12150/April-27-Reddit-AMA-Tornado-Talk-Severe-Weather-Research-Prediction-with-NOAA.aspx

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Severe Weather 101

svrwx101

Do you have questions about severe weather? Are you a teacher, student, or weather enthusiast who wants to learn more about atmospheric phenomena? If so, then we have just what you need!

Check out our Severe Weather 101 pages, where you can learn about thunderstorms, tornadoes, winter weather, and beyond. Visit each individual page for all the basics about the phenomenon of your choice, Frequently Asked Questions, and lots more.

In early 2015, NOAA’s National Severe Storms Laboratory completely overhauled Severe Weather 101 in preparation for the active spring storm season. Each page was converted to a new, more responsive format. With this design, it became easier than ever to access the information you are searching for, and you took notice! Traffic to our Education pages increased by 51% in 2015, accounting for 92% of the total increase in traffic to the NSSL website!

What else would you like to see in Severe Weather 101? How can NSSL help you to be more engaged with the weather? If you have suggestions for how we can improve our website, please contact us at nssl.outreach@noaa.gov. We look forward to hearing from you. And, this spring, remember to stay weather aware!

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NOAA study shows pattern of fewer days with tornadoes, but more tornadoes on those days

mooretornado_eilts
A massive tornado approaches Moore, OK on May 3, 1999

Are tornadoes increasing? Not really, the number has remained relatively constant. What is changing is that there are fewer days with tornadoes each year, but on those days there are more tornadoes, according to a NOAA report published today in the journal Science.

NOAA researchers looked at records of all but the weakest tornadoes in the United States from 1954 to 2013 for the study, “Increased variability of tornado occurrence in the United States.” They found that although there are fewer days with tornadoes, when a tornado does occur, there is increased likelihood there will be multiple tornadoes on that day. A consequence of this is that communities should expect an increased number of catastrophes, said lead author Harold Brooks, research meteorologist with the NOAA National Severe Storms Laboratory.

“Concentrating tornado damage on fewer days, but increasing the total damage on those days, has implications for people who respond, such as emergency managers and insurance interests,” Brooks said. “More resources will be needed to respond, but they won’t be used as often.”

Why tornadoes are concentrating on fewer days is still an open question, Brooks said. The pattern may be connected to changes in weather and climate. More research involving climate and tornado scientists is needed.

The study also showed there is greater variability in the starting date of spring tornado season, with more early starts and late starts in recent years. From 1954 to 1997, 95 percent of the time tornado season started between March 1 and April 20. But in the last 17 years, this happened only 41 percent of the time.

Researchers note tornadoes differ from tropical cyclones or hurricanes in the North Atlantic because tornadoes can occur year round. In fact, tornadoes have occurred in the U.S. on every calendar day at some point during the past 60 years.

Recent experience illustrates the study’s findings of variability. The study looked at tornadoes rated EF1 or higher on the Enhanced Fujita Scale, a measure of the damage caused by tornadoes with categories from EF0 to EF5. From June 2010 to May 2011, there were 1,050 EF1 and stronger tornadoes, the most in any 12-month period on record. Shortly after that, the U.S. saw the fewest in a 12-month period, only 236 EF1 and stronger tornadoes occurred from May 2012 to April 2013. November of 2012 had no EF1 tornadoes, but November of 2013 had the sixth most on record, with 66. There have been a relative low number of tornadoes to date in 2014, with an estimated 800 tornadoes of all intensities reported through September, almost 400 tornadoes below what is considered a normal year.

The study’s results are a first step toward understanding the relationship between changing tornado activity and a changing climate. The next step will be for climate scientists and tornado researchers to work together to identify what specific large scale pattern variations in climate may cause, or are related to, clustering of tornado activity.

Co-authors of the study are Gregory Carbin and Patrick Marsh with the NOAA’s National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center.

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