VORTEX-SE Workshop to be Held in November

Smith_Jasper_Clarke_Counties_tornado_2011-04-27The first invitation-only VORTEX-SE Workshop will be held in Huntsville, Alabama, November 9-10, 2015.

The Verification of Rotation in Tornadoes EXperiment-Southeast project focuses on tornadic storms and the special concerns associated with these storms in the southeastern United States. Meteorological issues in this region include nighttime and cool season tornadoes, rapid boundary layer evolution, the role of terrain in the variability of environments conducive to tornadoes, and Quasi-Linear Convective System tornadoes. Social science concerns relate to how people in the southeast receive and respond to tornado forecasts and warnings, as well as how prior tornado event and warning histories influence their responses.

The November workshop will establish themes for VORTEX-SE research that will span over the next several years. These themes will address the social science, meteorological, and resulting operational concerns that arise from severe weather events in the southeast. At the conclusion of the workshop, a roadmap of research projects will be outlined, along with information about sequencing, scope, duration, and cost. This information will be available for use by various federal agencies to guide funding decisions. The first field campaign of VORTEX-SE will be conducted in the spring of 2016.

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NSSL to host 5th Warn-on-Forecast Workshop

WoF logoThe NOAA National Severe Storms Laboratory will host the fifth annual Warn-on-Forecast Workshop April 1-3, 2014 at the National Weather Center in Norman, Okla.  NSSL’s Warn-on-Forecast research project aims to increase accuracy and lead times for warnings of storm-specific hazards through high-resolution weather prediction models.

The three-day event gives researchers an opportunity to share progress reports on a variety of operational and experimental models, techniques, and decision-making tools in support of the Warn-on-Forecast project.

Researchers will share results from models that attempt to use satellite, lightning, targeted observations, and radar data, including phased array radar data to predict individual thunderstorms. They will report on how these data impact the model by using case studies of past events, and show comparisons with what actually happened. The group will also address the challenge of how to predict the birth of a storm, and share results using various new techniques.

Warn-on-Forecast collaborators include NOAA National Severe Storms Laboratory and Earth System Research Laboratory’s Global Systems Division, NOAA National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center, and The University of Oklahoma’s Center for the Analysis and Prediction of Storms.

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2012 Warn On Forecast Workshop

The NOAA National Severe Storms Laboratory hosted the third annual Warn-on-Forecast Workshop February 8-9 at the National Weather Center in Norman, Okla.  Warn-on-Forecast is a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration research program tasked to increase tornado, severe thunderstorm, and flash flood warning lead times.

The Warn-on-Forecast workshop gives researchers an opportunity to present progress reports and to discuss plans for further research toward improvements in lead time for severe weather warnings.

Lead times are the time between a warning and when weather actually strikes. Trends in yearly-averaged tornado warning lead time suggest the present weather warning process, largely based upon a warn-on-detection approach using National Weather Service Doppler radars, is reaching a plateau and further increases in lead time will be difficult to obtain. A new approach is needed. Warn-on-Forecast is a convective-scale probabilistic hazardous weather forecast system. Guidance is provided by an ensemble of forecasts from numerical weather prediction models. Further research is needed to develop this system.

Warn-on-Forecast collaborators include NOAA National Severe Storms Laboratory and Earth System Research Laboratory, NOAA National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center, The University of Oklahoma’s Center for the Analysis and Prediction of Storms, and Social Science Woven Into Meteorology.

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