Status: Down

VORTEX-SE is still in a down mode.  We watch the numerical guidance carefully every day, looking for signs of sufficient shear, CAPE, and initiation mechanisms.  Right now, there are hints that a weak system may cause storms late next week (~April 21) with a marginal possibility of severe weather.  And there are hints of additional relatively weak episodes in the last week of the month.  Regular briefings will resume early next week if the late-week system shows signs of being stronger than currently forecast.  Otherwise, briefings will resume about 7 days before the next expected severe weather episode.

STATUS: Down

The long-range numerical guidance suggests that ridging will dominate the Southeast, with strong troughs moving through the SW US and lifting into the Midwest for the next week or so.  Eventually, these waves may start making it into the V-SE domain with enough energy to support severe storms… perhaps around April 20 and beyond.

The UAH briefing team will resume weather briefings about 7 days prior to the expected resumption of severe weather in the domain.

Status: Down

The IOP watch has been ended; the investigators have decided not to make the Monday night/early Tuesday event a V-SE IOP.  All available guidance suggests the probability of surface-based CAPE over 500 J/kg is low, and the probability of low-level shear supportive of tornadoes is also low.  These low probabilities imply that it is not worth using one of the two remaining IOPs for this event.

Briefings are now suspended until the UAH forecast team believes an IOP is possible within about 7 days.  Watch this blog for an announcement of the resumption of daily briefings.

STATUS: IOP Watch

We continue to watch the period from overnight Monday into early Tue morning (APR 12).  There will be a weak front passing N AL, but right now it appears that CAPE and shear will be below the climatological thresholds for tornadoes.  Further, the best CAPE and best shear are probably not going to overlap well in time.

A final decision on this IOP will happen at the 1 PM Saturday briefing, but odds are very slim.  Thereafter, there are no other events looming on the horizon, but that picture is likely to change from day to day.

STATUS: IOP Watch

We are watching for the possibility of an IOP ~ Tue Apr 12.  The odds of an IOP with this system are pretty marginal, but remote investigators need to be considering how they would make travel arrangements with the event occurring early in the week.

STATUS: IOP Watch

We are watching for the possibility of an IOP ~ Tue Apr 12.  Right now, the ingredients are not coming together particularly well, mainly as a result of forecasted nighttime system passage, and the configuration of the cold front.  The odds of an IOP with this system don’t look particularly high right now, but remote investigators need to be considering how they would make travel arrangements with the event occurring early in the week.

(Edit: changed “Mar” to “Apr” above… hat tip to a VORTEX-SE fan in Kansas.)

STATUS: Down

1 PM Briefings resumed today.

We are monitoring the guidance for Tue 12 April.  Right now it appears that CAPE and shear may be sufficient for severe storms in N AL.  If this guidance persists, we will likely go into “IOP Watch” status tomorrow, Wed 6 April.

The UAH will resume daily briefings at 1 PM today, Tuesday 5 April.

STATUS: Down

There will be no briefing today.  Briefings will resume about 7 days in advance of the next possible severe weather.  Although a front will pass through the VSE domain in the middle of this week, all indications are that the low levels will be too dry to support severe storms.

Some tools suggest that there will be a period of active severe weather in the southern U.S. around mid-April.  It remains to be seen whether this activity will be confined to the middle part of the country, or extend eastward into the Southeast.  Expect that briefings will resume later this week to monitor the evolution of the expected activity.

STATUS: Down

Daily briefings will resume when it appears that severe weather chances are about seven days away.  Right now, there are no systems in the forecast models for the next ~2 weeks that appear capable of supporting severe storms in Alabama.  The current pattern of an eastern N. American trof favors cool, dry weather, and the persistent subtropical jet favors convection in the Gulf of Mexico and immediate coastal areas, if/when it occurs.

But this could change any day, so watch this blog for updated status and the resumption of briefings.