Status: Down

VORTEX-SE is still in a down mode.  We watch the numerical guidance carefully every day, looking for signs of sufficient shear, CAPE, and initiation mechanisms.  Right now, there are hints that a weak system may cause storms late next week (~April 21) with a marginal possibility of severe weather.  And there are hints of additional relatively weak episodes in the last week of the month.  Regular briefings will resume early next week if the late-week system shows signs of being stronger than currently forecast.  Otherwise, briefings will resume about 7 days before the next expected severe weather episode.