STATUS: IOP

We are in the field for the first IOP.  Right now, the tornado potential is much lower than what the numerical forecasts suggested the last few days.  CAPE is near zero, and we’re not sure how much it will grow over the next few hours.  Shear is also less than expected.

But we have a nearly full suite of instruments in the field beginning observations.  A very weak line of convection is edging into AL from MS.  Some guidance still suggests this will intensify early this afternoon with a lower-end risk of rotating updrafts.

Erik